Generative AI made waves this year, from DALL-E-2 to ChatGPT. These tools are improving the productivity of knowledge workers—~2x in the case of AI coding assistants.
AI training cost declines continued at an annual rate of 70%, the cost to train a large language model to GPT-3 level performance collapsing from $4.6 million in 2020 to $450,000 in 2022. We expect cost declines to continue at a 70% rate through 2030.
AI should increase the productivity of knowledge workers more than 4-fold by 2030. At 100% adoption, AI could increase global labor productivity ~$200 trillion, dwarfing the ~$32 trillion in total knowledge worker salaries. Listen in as Frank Downing, ARK Director of Research: Next Generation Internet, and William Summerlin, ARK Analyst & Co-Lead, ARK Venture, explain more.
To enlighten investors on the long-term impact of innovation, we began publishing Big Ideas in 2017. This annual research report seeks to highlight the technological breakthroughs evolving today and creating the potential for super-exponential growth tomorrow.
We believe that innovation is taking off now, corroborating our original research and boosting our confidence that ARK’s strategies are on the right side of change. We hope you enjoy Big Ideas 2023!
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